Once upon a time in Las Vegas
After one of the most tumultuous weeks in NFL history, it’s time to get back to football this weekend with several playoff implications on the line. The Los Angeles Rams, already knocked out of the playoff scene, will travel to Seattle to take on a Seahawks team that needs a win and a Green Bay loss to earn a playoff spot. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 pm EST.
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The end of a difficult season
The Los Angeles Rams have had one of the most difficult seasons for a team that had just won the Super Bowl. The team has been bogged down by injuries, a poor offensive line, and a schedule of teams aiming for champions. The results have been a 5-11 season going into its season finale, which will be the worst record ever for the year after a Super Bowl title. Despite losing starting quarterback Matt Stafford, leading receiver Cooper Kupp and superstar defensive lineman Aaron Donald, the Rams have played better since losing six straight games in the middle of the season. Since then, the Rams have gone 2-2 with a run-laden offense and a consistent play on free agent recruit Baker Mayfield’s quarterback. Last Sunday, the Rams were run over by the Chargers in a confrontation between the two neighbors of SoFi Stadium. The Rams allowed 192 rushing yards for 6.2 yards per carry against a team that usually favors passing.
“We came in and we knew they were going to pass the ball, but they were able to run the ball, and we have to do better,” linebacker Bobby Wagner said. “(Austin) Ekeler was pretty much the back we expected. They put it in his hands, they put him on the perimeter and he made plays.”
End of season 🔜 pic.twitter.com/7ecFAxreKx
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 5, 2023
The Rams come into this game looking to wrap up the season and prepare for an offseason that will likely result in a lot of turnovers. In the meantime, they have to close out this disappointing season. The Rams rank 26th in scoring offense in the NFL with that many weapons lost. They rank 29th in rushing, but have averaged 132 yards per game over the past three games. By air, the Rams rank 27th in air attack, which isn’t surprising without all their weapons. In a nod to head coach Sean McVay’s play, the Rams still rank an impressive 11th in the NFL in red zone offense. The Rams have their scoring defense ranked 21st this season. They rank 10th in ground defense and only 22nd in air defense. The Rams rank 20th in the league in turnover differential, but are one of the best in the league defensively in the red zone, ranking third overall.
Key injuries: DT Aaron Donald is listed as doubtful, but don’t expect him to adjust. WR Ben Skowrownek is out, making the WR group even more difficult. C Brian Allen is out, while S Nick Scott and DT Greg Gaines are listed as questionable.
still on the hunt
The Seattle Seahawks have been one of the surprise teams in the NFL this season. After trading All-Pro quarterback Russell Wilson to Denver last offseason, the Seahawks find themselves with a legitimate playoff shot while Wilson’s Broncos were eliminated a few weeks ago. Seattle is 8-8 and will need a win and then a loss to Green Bay on Sunday night to get back to the playoffs. Seattle has been led by this year’s potential Returning Player of the Year in quarterback Geno Smith. Smith has set career highs for touchdowns and yards, among other things, and brought stability to a Seattle offense that many thought would collapse without Wilson. Last week, the Seahawks rebounded from three straight losses with a critical 23-6 win over the Jets at home. Smith threw two touchdowns against the team that originally drafted him, completing a three-game sweep of all his former teams this season, including wins over the Chargers and Giants.
“Honestly, it doesn’t mean anything more than the fact that we gave ourselves another chance to go to the playoffs,” Smith said. There were good moments.”
A little late this week, but how about a #Seahawks mailbag. You know the drill: tweet me your bright and deep (who am I kidding, mediocre is fine too) #Seahawks/random questions; I will reply tomorrow at https://t.co/ridiAtHWkx. pic.twitter.com/W6wkInFr5y
— John Boyle (@johnpboyle) January 6, 2023
Seattle has thrived with an amazing offensive outburst this season and is in position for a potential postseason run. The Seahawks rank ninth in the NFL in scoring offense this season. They rank 18th in rushing, which is impressive given the number of injuries they’ve sustained in the backfield. The passing attack is ranked 12th in the NFL. The Seahawks have struggled in the red zone, ranking 26th. Seattle has been passable in the billing department, ranking 11th in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, Seattle ranks 24th in scoring defense. The Seahawks have struggled against the run, ranking 30th in the NFL, while their pass defense ranks 17th. The team’s red zone defense hasn’t been great, ranking 24th in the NFL.
Key injuries: Several players are listed as questionable, including WR Tyler Lockett and RB Kenneth Walker III, but all are expected to be available in this critical game.
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Looking quickly at the records and motivations, you’d think he’d jump on the Seahawks in this matchup. However, I think the motivation can be pretty much the same on both sides. Although the Rams don’t have the motivation to defend their Super Bowl title in the postseason, they do have several players who will be playing for their NFL futures in this game. Leading and above all is quarterback Baker Mayfield. Mayfield, while not playing at the Pro Bowl level, has been much more efficient on offense than McVay. He has a legitimate running game that has averaged 132 yards per game over the last three games and an offense that has allowed him to control and make simpler plays. Rams running back Cam Akers has come to life as the lead running back, just weeks after he was rumored to have asked to leave the Rams organization. He will no doubt be motivated to end the season with another great game.
Seattle also comes in with just 24th-ranked defense against the run, which should suit LA perfectly. Seattle will face a Rams defense that has been pretty solid against the run, ranking 10th in the NFL, so they’ll probably have to win this one through the air. While Smith has had a stellar season, his numbers have lagged a bit in the latter part of the season. He is completing 63.8% of his passes in his last four games, down from his 70% completion percentage this season. One more thing to note, the Rams are much more efficient in the red zone on both offense and defense than Seattle. I think Seattle finally pulls out a field goal game, the Rams will keep this one tight.
Take the Rams +6.
Prediction: LA Rams +6
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The Rams will play ball control football in this matchup. They have shown the ability to run the ball very well in the latter part of the season and have moved to a more controlled pass attack that has featured primarily tight end Tyler Higbee. Expect that trend to continue here and expect the forecast rainy conditions in Seattle to play a role in the game total as well. Look for a grinder in Seattle that is a field goal game that stays under this total.
Take the bass, 41.5 points.
Prediction: Under 42
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