Tesla deliveries hit record 405,278, but miss Q4 views

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tesla (TSLA) deliveries hit a record 405,278 in the fourth quarter, the electric vehicle giant said Monday, missing lowered forecasts despite aggressive year-end incentives. That comes after Tesla shares plunged in December and into 2022.


Tesla deliveries were up 31% from a year ago and nearly 18% from 343,830 in the third quarter. Deliveries increased 40% to 1,313,851 in 2022, but well below the 50% target.

Analysts had expected Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries of about 420,000, which have dropped significantly in recent weeks. Tesla’s deliveries in the third quarter also fell short.

Fourth-quarter deliveries included 388,131 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, with 17,147 Model S and X luxury electric vehicles.

The figures do not include any Tesla Semi deliveries. Some were delivered to Pepsi in the fourth quarter

Fourth quarter production increased to 439,701 in the fourth quarter, exceeding deliveries by more than 34,000. In the third quarter, production exceeded sales by just over 22,000.

Tesla’s China-based electric vehicle rivals reported strong fourth-quarter deliveries over the weekend.

Tesla production

Tesla production reached 439,701 in the fourth quarter, surpassing deliveries by more than 34,000. In the third quarter, production exceeded sales by just over 22,000.

Production could have been significantly higher.

Tesla Shanghai slowed production on December 12 and suspended production on December 24 amid lack of demand. Production was scheduled to restart on Monday, but was then halted for an extended period from January 21 to 30 in the middle of Chinese New Year.

Still, with increased production in Berlin and Austin, Tesla’s overall production capacity is now well above 450,000 per quarter.

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Tesla Incentives

Tesla offered deep discounts in its main markets to move the metal before the end of the year. In China, a price cut in late October was followed by insurance discounts and subsidies. In the US, Tesla is offering $7,500 off Model 3 and Y vehicles for year-end delivery, adding Model S and X to the offer for the last two days of 2022.

If demand were red hot, Tesla’s deliveries could have surpassed 450,000 in the fourth quarter given its production capacity and existing inventory.

Tesla EV subsidies up, down

In 2023, new US tax credits of up to $7,500 will help Tesla sue at home, but they are subject to a variety of conditions, with income and price limits. The Model 3 faces a $55,000 price ceiling, which means the base model is eligible, but the top-end model isn’t. The Model Y, which starts at $65,990, also typically faces a $55,000 price cap. But the less popular seven-seat version is capped at $80,000.

It’s unclear how Tesla might adjust prices and production as a result of the tax credits.

Meanwhile, China’s EV subsidies of 11,088 yuan ($1,607) have ended.

Tesla has already essentially absorbed the expiring subsidy by keeping official prices stable. It also extended the year-end discounts worth 10,000 yuan until February.

Several European countries have also cut or eliminated subsidies for electric vehicles, including Germany.

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Tesla Stock

Tesla shares plunged 37% in December and 65% by 2022, even with a rebound late in the year. Blame concerns about Tesla demand, the weak overall market for growth stocks, and worries about Elon Musk and Twitter.

Analysts remain bullish on Tesla stock

Despite Tesla’s stock’s recent plunge, analysts say it’s still a solid bet.

On Thursday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter wrote that “bearish-leaning traders” and tax-loss sellers are “taking advantage of increasingly negative news.”

Potter added that while Tesla’s growth “could easily slow” in 2023 due to a recession, rising interest rates and “depleted” demand, the company’s market share is not “suddenly succumbing to a tidal wave.” of new competition”.

“Bottom line: We don’t see any red flags in these data sets,” Potter wrote of Tesla’s top sales regions.

This follows Baird analyst Ben Kallo lowering his Tesla price target to 252, down from 316, on Wednesday, but touting Tesla as a “Best Idea” stock for investors in 2023.

The week before, six analysts cut price targets on TSLA shares. However, targets remain well above Tesla’s current share price level, and analysts have generally maintained Buy and Outperform ratings. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, also weighed in this week, expressing optimism for the electric vehicle giant.

The analyst wrote that about 70% of Tesla’s recent stock selloff is due to the reaction to Musk and his involvement and focus on Twitter. Ives said that if Musk refocuses on Tesla and stops selling TSLA stock, “then this stock has bottomed out in our view and it works from here.”

Follow Kit Norton on Twitter @KitNorton for more coverage.


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